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Sunday, August 7 • 2:20pm - 3:20pm
Forecasting and Predictions

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Predicting what intervention will produce a positive impact using only expect consensus or deductive reasoning can be hard. Prediction markets and forecasting tournaments pose a potential solution. This panel will analyze how these tools can be used in the domain of cause prioritization.

Moderators
avatar for Julia Galef

Julia Galef

Julia is the president and co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, an organization teaching math- and cognitive science-based techniques for effective decision-making. Julia's work on rationality has been featured in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Discover, Slate, Fast Company, and Vice. Since 2010, she's been the host of the popular Rationally Speaking podcast.

Speakers
avatar for Owen Cotton Barratt

Owen Cotton Barratt

Owen leads the research at the Global Priorities Project, part of the Centre for Effective Altruism. He has a PhD in mathematics from the University of Oxford, was a founding member of Giving What We Can, and is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute. He has written papers in mathematics, economics, and philosophy, and his research currently focuses on how we can prioritise between pressing problems under conditions of... Read More →
avatar for Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson is Assoc. Prof. of economics at George Mason University, & research associate at Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He has a Caltech social science Ph.D., University of Chicago physics M.S & philosophy M.A., 9 years experience as A.I. research programmer, at Lockheed & NASA, 3050 citations, h-index of 25, 60 academic publications, 400 media mentions, 200 invited talks, & 8 million visits to his blog... Read More →
avatar for Jason Matheny

Jason Matheny

Dr. Jason Matheny became IARPA’s director in 2015, after serving as a program manager, associate office director, and office director. Before IARPA, he worked at Oxford University, the World Bank, the Applied Physics Laboratory, the Center for Biosecurity and Princeton University, and is the co-founder of two biotechnology companies. His research has been published in Nature, Nature Biotechnology, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism, Clinical... Read More →


Sunday August 7, 2016 2:20pm - 3:20pm
1. Zellerbach Hall 101 Zellerbach Hall #4800, Berkeley, CA 94720

Attendees (136)